Current election trend
NAT 30.3% vs LAB 29.1%
Average v1.0Six most recent polls · recency and sample weighted
How the average works →New Zealand general election · 2026
New Zealand election polls
National leads Labour by 1.2 points in the NZ Polls average. The race for government depends on the 5% threshold and which parties can assemble a majority.
Election day7 Nov2026
Full trend →
Seat estimate
No bloc has a clear majority
Opposition parties56
66 to govern
Government parties65
LAB 35GRN 15TPM 6OPP 9NZF 12ACT 10NAT 43
Opportunity could hold the balance. Its average is 7.2%, around the MMP threshold.
Government formation
Which coalitions could govern?
Choose a common alliance or combine parties yourself. The majority line uses the current seat estimate.
Government builder
This coalition falls short
National + ACT + NZ First
65seats1 seat short
Common scenariosOne click
Build your ownAdd or remove parties
Selected seats in ParliamentCurrent estimate
NZF 12NAT 43ACT 10
Mechanical seat estimate from the current polling average and electorate assumptions — not a coalition prediction.
Latest movement
The polling trend
Individual national party-vote polls during 2026. The lines connect observations; the summary compares today with the equivalent average 90 days ago.
NATLABGRNACTNZFTPMOPP
What the numbers mean
The state of the race
Short answers to the questions voters ask most often, recalculated from the current average.
Who leads the election trend?
National Party leads the NZ Polls average on 30.3%. The margin over Labour remains small enough that coalition arithmetic matters more than first place alone.
What changed since 2023?
National Party has the largest absolute movement against its 2023 party-vote result: -7.8 points.
Why can the threshold decide government?
Opportunity averages 7.2%. Crossing 5% changes which votes enter the Sainte-Laguë allocation and can reshape both blocs.
New Zealand’s party system
Left, right — and the space between
A two-axis map is more useful than a single left–right label: ACT is strongly market-oriented but more socially liberal than New Zealand First, while Green and Te Pāti Māori sit in a progressive-left area.
Five established parties use Global Party Survey expert scores. Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity are transparent editorial estimates with larger uncertainty rings. Method →
Why two axes?
Economic policy and social values do not always move together. The map keeps party colour separate from ideology and shows uncertainty rather than pretending every position is exact.
New · 20 sourced questionsFind your closest party match→Published evidence
Latest New Zealand polls
Results as reported by each publisher. Follow the source arrow for the original release.
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | OPP | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul – 23 Aug 2026 | Roy Morgan↗ | 858 | 31.0 | 24.0 | 15.5 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 9.5 | NAT +7.0 |
| 14–21 Aug 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research↗ | 1,000 | 29.1 | 32.2 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 3.0 | 5.3 | LAB +3.1 |
| 8–11 Aug 2026 | 1 News–Verian↗ | 847 | 29.0 | 30.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 1.1 | 8.0 | LAB +1.0 |
| 1–11 Aug 2026 | Talbot Mills↗ | — | 29.0 | 34.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 5.2 | LAB +5.0 |
| 1–4 Aug 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia↗ | 1,000 | 31.0 | 27.8 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 1.5 | 6.1 | NAT +3.2 |
| 29 Jun – 26 Jul 2026 | Roy Morgan↗ | 881 | 32.0 | 25.5 | 13.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 8.0 | NAT +6.5 |
Race mechanics
Three numbers that can decide 2026
The party-vote threshold
A party generally needs 5% nationwide or an electorate seat to share in list-seat allocation.
How MMP works →Seats for a majority
The line can move if Parliament expands through an overhang. Coalition agreements, not just first place, determine government.
See the seat estimate →Opportunity average
A small movement around 5% can change which votes qualify and reshape coalition options.
Explore Opportunity →Transparent by design
Polls, models and ideology are different evidence
NZ Polls keeps published results, averages, seat calculations and political classifications visibly separate. Every model states its assumptions and every ideological map states its source and uncertainty.