1. Poll eligibility
The current average uses nationwide party-vote polls with identifiable fieldwork dates and a traceable publisher or original release. We preserve a missing party value as unavailable rather than converting it to zero.
2. Normalisation
Each poll is normalised across its reported party and other-vote values. This prevents a poll with omitted or separately reported categories from receiving an accidental penalty, while retaining its raw values in the poll table.
3. Weighting
Average v1.0 uses the six most recent eligible polls. The newest poll begins with full recency weight; each earlier observation receives 82% of the prior observation's weight. Sample-size weight is the square root of the reported sample divided by 1,000. A missing sample receives neutral weight.
4. What is not modelled yet
Version 1.0 does not apply pollster house effects, mode effects, correlated error, electorate-level swings or Monte Carlo win probabilities. We would rather show a limited transparent average than dress an unvalidated model as precision.
5. Seat estimate
Eligible parties are passed through the modified Sainte-Laguë method used by New Zealand. A party qualifies by reaching 5% or through an electorate-seat assumption. If assumed electorate seats exceed proportional entitlement, the estimate retains them and Parliament expands.
6. Coalitions
The calculator adds selected parties' estimated seats and compares them with half the estimated Parliament plus one. It does not predict negotiations, confidence agreements or compatibility.
7. Party-match calculation
The quiz compares each answer with every documented party position. Exact matches receive full credit, nearby positions receive partial credit and opposite positions receive none. Up to three user-selected priority topics receive additional weight; skipped questions have no effect, while a neutral answer remains a real answer.
Party positions are editorial classifications of current official material, reviewed on 2 September 2026. When a party has no clear documented position, that question is excluded from its calculation rather than treated as a neutral match. The calculation is performed in the browser, uses no AI, requests no demographic information and sends no answers to NZ Polls.
Corrections
If a publisher corrects a result, NZ Polls updates the raw record, recalculates derived views and notes the source. Send corrections to info@nzpolls.com.