Current average
Party vote and 90-day movement
Average v1.0Six most recent polls · recency and sample weighted
How the average works →Current election trend
New Zealand polling average
The modelled view, not another poll list: current party support, movement over 90 days, change since the 2023 election and the spread between recent pollsters.
Average v1.0 · Calculated 1 September 2026
NATLABGRNACTNZFTPMOPP
One table, four readings
Current support, history and poll spread
This is the diagnostic layer missing from the home: it shows whether a change is durable and how far the six input polls disagree.
| Party | Current | 90 days ago | 2023 election | Input-poll range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Party | 30.3% | 29.4% +0.9 | 38.1% -7.8 | 29.0–32.0% |
| Labour Party | 29.1% | 33.0% -3.9 | 26.9% +2.2 | 24.0–34.0% |
| Green Party | 11.9% | 10.3% +1.6 | 11.6% +0.3 | 8.0–15.5% |
| ACT New Zealand | 8.6% | 8.3% +0.3 | 8.6% +0.0 | 7.0–10.5% |
| New Zealand First | 9.7% | 12.3% -2.6 | 6.1% +3.6 | 7.5–13.0% |
| Te Pāti Māori | 2.0% | 2.6% -0.6 | 3.1% -1.1 | 1.1–3.0% |
| Opportunity Party | 7.2% | 4.0% +3.2 | 2.2% +5.0 | 5.2–9.5% |
The range is the lowest and highest published value among the six polls currently entering the average. It is observed disagreement, not a confidence interval.
Reading the movement
What is actually changing?
First place matters less than bloc arithmetic, threshold risk and whether movements appear across several pollsters.
Who leads the election trend?
National Party leads the NZ Polls average on 30.3%. The margin over Labour remains small enough that coalition arithmetic matters more than first place alone.
What changed since 2023?
National Party has the largest absolute movement against its 2023 party-vote result: -7.8 points.
Why can the threshold decide government?
Opportunity averages 7.2%. Crossing 5% changes which votes enter the Sainte-Laguë allocation and can reshape both blocs.
Model inputs
The six polls in the current average
These published observations feed the weighted average. Older results remain in the research database.
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | OPP | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul – 23 Aug 2026 | Roy Morgan↗ | 858 | 31.0 | 24.0 | 15.5 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 9.5 | NAT +7.0 |
| 14–21 Aug 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research↗ | 1,000 | 29.1 | 32.2 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 3.0 | 5.3 | LAB +3.1 |
| 8–11 Aug 2026 | 1 News–Verian↗ | 847 | 29.0 | 30.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 1.1 | 8.0 | LAB +1.0 |
| 1–11 Aug 2026 | Talbot Mills↗ | — | 29.0 | 34.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 5.2 | LAB +5.0 |
| 1–4 Aug 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia↗ | 1,000 | 31.0 | 27.8 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 1.5 | 6.1 | NAT +3.2 |
| 29 Jun – 26 Jul 2026 | Roy Morgan↗ | 881 | 32.0 | 25.5 | 13.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 8.0 | NAT +6.5 |